Week 06 of 12
Must-Hit-By Calculations
11 min read
A must-hit-by progressive is required to award before its posted ceiling. That guarantee converts a vague feeling of being due into an arithmetic problem with a right answer.
The structure
The meter starts at a seed value and rises with coin-in until it awards, at a point randomly drawn between the seed and the posted must-hit-by ceiling. On average, awarding happens near the midpoint of that range.
The closer the current meter sits to the ceiling, the less remaining range there is, and the shorter the expected cost of capturing it.
The threshold
Expected cost to capture is roughly the remaining range divided by two, then divided by the game's base return, because the base game pays back part of everything you cycle through it.
If the current meter value exceeds that expected cost plus the base-game shortfall, the seat is positive expectation. If it does not, walking away is the correct play, however close the meter looks.
The practical traps
Someone taking the seat while you calculate, a bankroll too thin to reach the ceiling, and multi-level meters where only the top level carries the value — all three routinely turn a positive seat into a loss.
Never take a must-hit seat you cannot fund to the ceiling. A correct calculation abandoned halfway is simply a loss.
This week on the floor
- · Find one must-hit-by meter and write down the seed, current value, and ceiling.
- · Work the expected cost to capture before deciding anything.
- · Walk away from at least one meter that looks close but fails the arithmetic.
Play the number, not the nearness.
Start free